Malaysia September supply and demand preview ahead of MPOB | MPOB poll

Malaysia supply and demand estimate for September

Production will be the main variable to watch out for in the MPOB data due on Tuesday 10 October. Production is widely expected to do well rising by 6% to 1.860 million mt from a month ago reaching the highest volume in three years. Meanwhile, exports are likely to rise by 8%  month-on-month, recovering from the lows of August. Stocks are forecast to rise to  a staggering 2.410-2.380 million mt or up 12-14%. Limiting the stock rise are lower imports which are pegged to decline to around 80,000 mt from 110,621 mt in August in view of greater availability of palm products domestically. Domestic use is forecast to rise by over 40% to above 350,000 mt from a low of 251,473 mt in August. The market has priced in the expected very bearish data with the CPO futures active month erasing 11% or RM439 ($93) since the 1st of September when prices were last at RM4000/mt or $850.