Production looks to move either way again this month after industry estimates showed mixed expectations for April’s output; see below for estimates. April’s production has been harder to gauge owing to the Eid holidays and the variation in the length of holidays plantation workers have been given, thereby affecting the total number of working days. If production increases, this would be the second consecutive monthly rise, but the expected marginal change is unlikely to lead to a rise in stock levels, owing to the sharp drop seen last month where end-month stocks fell sharply to 1.67 million tons – a nine-month low. This is despite a forecasted drop in exports, with estimates pegging April shipments at around 1.2 million mt compared with 1.49 million tons the previous month. Cargo surveyors ITS and Amspec had earlier put exports at 18-21% lower against March, as international demand for palm slowed in April following stiff competition from rival soft oils in key destination markets.
Actual MPOB data is due on 10 May at mid-day MY/SG time.